Editor’s Note: This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the latest developments in the Russo-Ukrainian War as of early February 2025. Drawing from battlefield assessments by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the report examines Russia’s escalating offensives across eastern Ukraine, Ukraine’s counterstrikes targeting Russian infrastructure, and the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict. The analysis highlights key military engagements, air and missile campaigns, humanitarian concerns, and Western support. As the war enters a critical phase, the dynamics of attritional warfare, logistical disruptions, and shifting frontlines will shape the trajectory of the conflict in the months ahead.
For those seeking to grasp the full scope of this evolving landscape, the complete updates from the Institute for the Study of War serve as an invaluable resource.
Background Note: ComplexDiscovery’s staff offers distinctive perspectives on the Russo-Ukrainian war and Middle Eastern conflicts, informed by military experience on the West German, East German, and Czechoslovakian border during the Cold War and in Sinai as part of Camp David Accord compliance activities. This firsthand regional knowledge has been further enhanced by recent staff travels to Eastern European countries, including Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. These visits have provided up-to-date, on-the-ground insights into the current geopolitical climate in regions directly impacted by the ongoing conflict.
Combined with cybersecurity, information governance, and eDiscovery proficiency, this multifaceted experience enables comprehensive analysis of these conflicts, including the critical impact of cyber warfare, disinformation, and digital forensics on modern military engagements. This unique background positions ComplexDiscovery to provide valuable insights for conflict-related investigations and litigation, where understanding the interplay of technology, data, and geopolitical factors is crucial.
Russo-Ukrainian Conflict Update*
Targeting Infrastructure: Ukraine Strikes Russia as Moscow Expands Its Offensive
ComplexDiscovery Staff
The conflict in Ukraine continues to evolve, with both Russian and Ukrainian forces adapting their strategies in an intensifying struggle for control. Over the past several days, Russia has expanded its offensive across multiple axes, employing a combination of large-scale missile strikes, mechanized assaults, and evolving battlefield tactics. Ukrainian forces, in response, have launched targeted counterstrikes, disrupting Russian logistics and mounting defensive efforts to blunt Russia’s incremental advances.
Russian missile and drone strikes have escalated significantly, with Russian forces launching a series of coordinated attacks across Ukraine between January 31 and February 2. These included barrages of Iskander-M and Iskander-K missiles fired from Russian territory and occupied Crimea, as well as waves of Shahed drones originating from Kursk, Oryol, and Rostov Oblasts. Ukrainian officials reported that their air defenses successfully intercepted many of these incoming threats, but the effectiveness of Russian ballistic missiles remained a pressing concern due to Ukraine’s limited air defense resources. Odesa, Poltava, and Kharkiv were among the hardest-hit cities, suffering damage to both residential areas and cultural landmarks, including a UNESCO-protected site in Odesa. These strikes underscored Russia’s ongoing strategy of targeting Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, a tactic designed to erode both military and civilian resilience.
At the same time, Ukrainian forces have intensified their own campaign against Russian supply lines and defense industrial infrastructure. A key development in recent days was a Ukrainian strike on the Lukoil-Volgogradneftoperobka Oil Refinery in Volgograd Oblast, a facility that plays a crucial role in Russia’s military logistics. The attack, reportedly carried out by Ukrainian drone units, triggered an explosion and disrupted operations at the refinery. Ukrainian military officials framed this strike as part of a broader effort to degrade Russia’s ability to sustain its war effort. This latest attack follows a series of Ukrainian strikes targeting Russia’s energy sector, a strategy aimed at forcing logistical strain on Moscow’s military machine.
On the ground, Russian and Ukrainian forces remain locked in intense combat across several key fronts. Russian troops have concentrated their efforts in eastern Ukraine, where they continue to press forward in a methodical, attritional advance. The Kupiansk sector has become a focal point of Russian operations, with Russian forces seeking to expand their salient north of the town. Elements of the Russian 6th Combined Arms Army and 1st Guards Tank Army have been leading the charge, attempting to envelop Kupiansk from multiple directions. Russian commanders appear to be employing a slow envelopment strategy rather than opting for high-risk, large-scale mechanized breakthroughs. Ukrainian forces, recognizing the threat posed by this approach, have mounted determined defenses, repeatedly repelling Russian mechanized assaults in the region. Reports indicate that Russian forces, having suffered heavy losses in earlier attempts, have begun shifting to infantry-based attacks, using all-terrain vehicles and civilian cars to navigate the battlefield and avoid detection.
Further south, the battles for Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk have also intensified. Russian units have launched multiple mechanized assaults on Ukrainian defensive positions in these areas, incorporating infantry fighting vehicles, buggies, and even motorcycles in their attacks. Ukrainian forces, benefiting from fortified defensive positions and a deep understanding of the terrain, have managed to hold key ground, though the fighting remains fluid and highly contested. The use of smaller, more mobile strike units suggests that Russian commanders are experimenting with new tactical approaches, attempting to offset Ukraine’s ability to interdict large armored formations.
Meanwhile, in the Black Sea, Russian forces have demonstrated a new method of countering Ukraine’s naval drone capabilities. In a significant development, the Russian Black Sea Fleet reportedly deployed a missile-capable drone to destroy a Ukrainian naval drone. This marks a potential shift in naval tactics, as Russia appears to be adapting to Ukraine’s increasing use of naval drones, which have successfully targeted Russian vessels in recent months. The use of drone-on-drone engagements in the maritime domain could indicate that Russia is working to mitigate Ukraine’s technological edge in this sphere of the conflict.
Beyond the battlefield, the humanitarian toll of the war continues to mount. On February 1, a Russian strike hit a dormitory in Sudzha, Kursk Oblast, killing and wounding civilians. Ukrainian officials maintain that this was a Russian attack on its own territory, possibly due to an errant guided glide bomb, while Russian authorities have blamed Ukraine for the strike. Moscow’s state-run media outlets quickly pushed a narrative that Ukrainian forces were responsible, but independent verification of the incident remains elusive.
In occupied Ukrainian territories, Russian authorities persist in their campaign of forced deportations and military conscription. Ukrainian officials reported that at least 20,000 Ukrainian children have been illegally taken to Russia or occupied Crimea since the war began, with many being subjected to Russian indoctrination and militarization programs. These forced transfers, which include separating children from their families in so-called “rehabilitation camps,” have been condemned as violations of international law. Russian authorities have also intensified efforts to forcibly conscript Ukrainian men from occupied regions into the Russian military, an action that directly contravenes the Geneva Convention. Ukrainian intelligence sources indicate that Russian recruiters have pressured at least 300 Ukrainian civilians into service in recent months, with many sent to military units stationed in occupied Crimea.
Despite the mounting pressures on Ukraine’s military, Western nations continue to provide critical support. In a notable development, the United Kingdom announced a £2 billion ($2.5 billion) military assistance package for Ukraine, aimed at strengthening air defense systems and localizing defense production. Finland followed suit with a nearly €200 million ($207 million) aid package, while Czechia has signaled its intent to procure additional artillery ammunition for Ukraine. These commitments reflect the ongoing resolve among Western allies to sustain Ukraine’s war effort, even as questions persist about long-term military assistance.
Beyond Ukraine’s borders, the war’s geopolitical impact continues to ripple outward. Moldova and Transnistria recently accepted a European Union aid package totaling €64 million ($66.3 million), marking a significant shift away from Russian economic influence in the region. This financial assistance, intended to support gas purchases and electricity procurement, undermines one of Russia’s key leverage points over the breakaway Transnistrian region. Moscow has historically used energy dependence to exert control over Transnistria, and this new arrangement could weaken its grip on the region ahead of Moldova’s upcoming parliamentary elections.
Looking ahead, the war shows no signs of abating. Russian forces remain committed to their methodical advances, relying on attritional tactics to grind down Ukrainian defenses. Ukrainian forces, despite facing material and manpower challenges, continue to hold key positions while striking at Russian supply lines where possible. As winter transitions into spring, the prospect of renewed offensives looms large, with both sides likely preparing for escalated fighting in the months ahead. The balance of forces remains dynamic, and while Russia is making incremental gains, Ukraine’s ability to leverage Western support and disrupt Russian logistics could yet shape the course of the conflict.
News Sources
As a leading source for cybersecurity, information governance, and legal discovery insights, including international investigations and litigation, ComplexDiscovery OÜ recognizes the importance of awareness regarding alleged and documented criminal acts, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While we, following the lead of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), do not provide detailed coverage of war crimes in our primary reports, we encourage professionals within the eDiscovery ecosystem to stay informed about these activities. This awareness is crucial for understanding potential future legal actions and responsibilities.
Detailed Reporting with Maps for January 31 – February 1, 2025, from the ISW – Mouseover to Scroll
Russo-Ukrainian War February 02 2025 – Update
Review the Detailed Reporting and Maps PDF
About the Institute for the Study of War Research Methodology
ISW’s research methodology relies on both primary and secondary sources, enabling researchers to develop a comprehensive understanding of the situation on the ground. In order to analyze military and political developments in any given area, ISW’s research analysts must wholly understand the systems of enemy and friendly forces. They must also understand the population demographics, physical terrain, politics, and history of that area. This lays the analytical foundation for understanding the reasons for particular developments and fulfilling their assigned research objectives. ISW analysts also spend time in places like Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere in order to gain a better understanding of the security and political situation and to evaluate the implementation of current strategies and policies. Our researchers compile data and analyze trends, producing a granular analysis of developments in areas of research, producing an accurate, high-resolution, timely, and thorough picture of the situation. ISW’s research methodology guarantees its success and commitment to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations, achieve strategic objectives, and respond to emerging problems that may require the use of American military power.
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Additional Reading
- From Dissent to OSINT? Understanding, Influencing, and Protecting Roles, Reputation, and Revenue
- [Annual Update] International Cyber Law in Practice: Interactive Toolkit
- Data Embassies: Sovereignty, Security, and Continuity for Nation-States
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